It is human nature to anticipate and predict information relevant to our day-to-day life before it actually occurs, using both past experiences and current context to determine what is likely to be revealed in the near future. Unsurprisingly, then, the world of horology is currently abuzz with chatter about what Watches and Wonders will reveal on the latest trends in the watch industry.

We know that the market is currently experiencing uncertainties and, as we approach the second quarter of 2025, the luxury watch industry finds itself at a crossroads. Declining sales for new watches, coupled with falling prices in the secondary market, have left industry experts questioning whether this is a temporary correction or a sign of more significant changes to come.

(Image: Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH)

According to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, export values decreased by 2.8% in 2024, totaling CHF 25.99 billion. And the decline isn’t limited to exports; the secondary market is feeling the pinch as well. Hamza Masood, Business Development Manager at WatchCharts.com, reports that, “January 2025 saw straight declines across the board for the WatchCharts Overall Market Index which fell by -0.9%, as well as for the Rolex (-0.8%), Patek Philippe (-0.9%), and Audemars Piguet (-0.5%) indexes.”

But the downturn isn’t a recent phenomenon. As noted by Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts, “The fourth quarter of 2024 marked the 11th consecutive quarter of declining prices in the pre-owned luxury watch sector, indicating a sustained market correction since its peak in mid-2022.” This extended period of decline suggests that the market is still adjusting from the speculative bubble that formed during the pandemic years.

Rolex Cosmograph Daytona ref. 126589RBR

Read: The Domination Of Rolex In The Watch Market

However, there are positive signs that the industry is witnessing an influx of new buyers — younger clients, more women investing in timepieces, and new geographical markets opening up, all of which could potentially lead to future growth. So, despite the challenges currently facing luxury watch manufacturers, a willingness to adapt will help brands ride the storm — as they have had to do many times before in periods of economic uncertainty and technical change. 

With all this in mind, then, what are we likely to see at the world’s most important watch fair in terms of trends and fashions? 

The return of reassuringly familiar brand leaders

Last year saw many people (me included) returning to companies and positions they have held before. CEOs Jérôme Lambert of Jaeger-LeCoultre, Antoine Pin of TAG Heuer and Catherine Rénier of Van Cleef & Arpels are all effectively “going home” by rejoining brands where they have achieved considerable past success. And, in a similar way, I think that in 2025 we are likely to see a strong focus on signature OG models that have provided the foundations that the brands are built on.

While it is always good to evolve and experiment, bringing the occasional element of surprise to market — for recent examples, think the Rolex “Emoji” Day-Date and the Audemars Piguet [RE]Master02 — what most collectors want, at least while they are building their collections, are the flagship models that represent the best and most important pillars of a brand. These pieces are rated as icons for a reason, and if the road ahead is currently unfamiliar, then it is the recognizable landmarks that bring reassurance and clarity in direction.

Trends: It’s still women’s hour

Last year, Chopard introduced a brand-new movement that slipped by most “Best in Show” reports because, rather than set collectors’ hearts aflutter with a plethora of clever functions, it was simply a teeny tiny caliber designed to power women’s watches. However, Cal 10.01-C was far more than a dot on the horological landscape. Chopard’s near silence surrounding its introduction served as a statement: the brand has always designed, and will continue to design, watches for women with flair and imagination, offering the choice to wear a stunning jewelry timepiece with a mechanical movement over a quartz.

Open caseback of Bulgari Serpenti Tubogas. image: Revolution ©

Already this year, we have seen Bvlgari take up the challenge of creating a small-sized automatic movement. Originally powering a selection of Serpenti and Tubogas watches, the movement will eventually be industrially produced by Zenith and will be supplied to other brands within the LVMH Group, including, if rumors are to be believed, both Tiffany & Co. and Hublot.

With many other brands hinting at a focus on women’s watches in the months to come, I am living in hope that we will see more serious investment in pieces purposefully created for women — and if men want to wear them, too, then all the better, as good design should be universal, although not necessarily unisex.

And, as a sidenote to the growing attention on women’s timepieces, jewelry watches are also having their moment in the spotlight, with watch and jewelry writer, Ming Liu, noting that gem-set pieces for both women and men are receiving some serious attention with careful design and intricate movements, resulting in prominent placement on the world’s most lavish red carpets.

More material innovations in 2025

If LVMH Watch Week is a gauge of things to come, then we should be seeing some more material innovations in 2025. Ceramic is making a stand again this year with intriguing new colors coming from Louis Vuitton, Hublot and Rado. It’s a safe bet that there will be more on offer at Palexpo. 

Hublot Big Bang Tourbillon Automatic Green Saxem

And with Hublot CEO Julien Tornare promising a return to the Willy Wonka-style experimentalism of the original Big Bangs, we can only hope that January’s neon green SAXEM case for the Big Bang Tourbillon is a sign of things to come from the watch world’s original disruptor.

While precious metals were de rigueur for 2024, the high price of gold will hopefully result in some interesting alternatives, with founder and owner of Wind Vintage, Eric Wind, keeping his fingers crossed for more titanium pieces at Rolex. “Or at least a reduced sized titanium Yacht-Master in 40mm rather than 42mm,” he adds.

Cleverer consumers seeking added value

Often a word avoided in the field of luxury goods, “value” has already become a 2025 buzzword in the watch world with companies having to justify their price tags through more than basic branding. Interestingly, one of the most prestigious watch brands in the world is also the one that has led the challenge in terms of value. With the introduction of the Must de Cartier line in the 1970s, Cartier set out to broaden its appeal and make its products accessible to a younger, more style-conscious demographic. 

Cartier Tank Must

Far from diluting its luxury status, the Must line succeeded in making Cartier even more aspirational, solidifying its position as a leading luxury brand. Still today, alongside every limited edition dream watch, Cartier will release an accessible version that is every bit as prestigious and desirable. While other brands may have eschewed this strategy in the past, wider economic pressures are likely to see customers doing their sums in terms of intrinsic value × R&D costs × a luxury logo = $$$$$. 

So, while I am of course excited to see what watches the King of Jewelers brings out this year, I am also keen to see who else will take on the challenge of added value — from what I have seen and heard in previews, I have high hopes from many unexpected quarters.